Our Gemara on Amud Aleph tells us the happy and then tragic story “Nechunia, the One Who Dug Cisterns”.
תָּנוּ רַבָּנַן: מַעֲשֶׂה בְּבִתּוֹ שֶׁל נְחוּנְיָא חוֹפֵר שִׁיחִין שֶׁנָּפְלָה לְבוֹר גָּדוֹל, בָּאוּ וְהוֹדִיעוּ אֶת רַבִּי חֲנִינָא בֶּן דּוֹסָא. שָׁעָה רִאשׁוֹנָה אָמַר לָהֶם: שָׁלוֹם. שְׁנִיָּה אָמַר לָהֶם: שָׁלוֹם. שְׁלִישִׁית אָמַר לָהֶם: עָלְתָה.
An incident occurred involving the daughter of Neḥunya the ditchdigger, where she fell into a large cistern and no one could extricate her from it. They came and informed Rabbi Ḥanina ben Dosa so that he would pray on her behalf. When the first hour had passed from the time of her fall, he said to them: She is at peace and unharmed. After the second hour, he said to them: She is at peace. After the third hour, he said to them: She has ascended from the well, and indeed this was the case.
אָמְרוּ לָהּ: מִי הֶעֱלִךְ? אָמְרָה לָהֶם: זָכָר שֶׁל רְחֵלִים נִזְדַּמֵּן לִי, וְזָקֵן אֶחָד מַנְהִיגוֹ. אָמְרוּ לוֹ: נָבִיא אַתָּה? אָמַר לָהֶם: ״לֹא נָבִיא אָנֹכִי, וְלֹא בֶּן נָבִיא אָנֹכִי״, אֶלָּא כָּךְ אָמַרְתִּי: דָּבָר שֶׁאוֹתוֹ צַדִּיק מִצְטַעֵר בּוֹ – יִכָּשֵׁל בּוֹ זַרְעוֹ?
They said to her: Who brought you up out of the well? She said to them: A male sheep, i.e., a ram, happened to come to me, and a certain old man, i.e., Abraham, was leading it, and he pulled me out. They said to Rabbi Ḥanina ben Dosa: Are you a prophet? How did you know she had ascended? Rabbi Ḥanina ben Dosa said to them: “I am no prophet, neither am I a prophet’s son” (Amos 7:14), but this is what I said to myself: Shall the offspring of Neḥunya stumble by means of the very matter which distressed that righteous man?
אָמַר רַבִּי אַחָא: אַף עַל פִּי כֵן, מֵת בְּנוֹ בַּצָּמָא. שֶׁנֶּאֱמַר: ״וּסְבִיבָיו נִשְׂעֲרָה מְאֹד״ – מְלַמֵּד שֶׁהַקָּדוֹשׁ בָּרוּךְ הוּא מְדַקְדֵּק עִם סְבִיבָיו אֲפִילּוּ כְּחוּט הַשַּׂעֲרָה. רַבִּי נְחוּנְיָא אָמַר מֵהָכָא: ״אֵל נַעֲרָץ בְּסוֹד קְדֹשִׁים רַבָּה, וְנוֹרָא עַל כׇּל סְבִיבָיו״.
Rabbi Aḥa says: Although Neḥunya ensured that others would have water, even so, his son died of thirst, fulfilling that which is stated: “And around Him it storms [nisara] mightily” (Psalms 50:3). This teaches that the Holy One, Blessed be He, is scrupulous with those around Him, i.e., the righteous, even to the extent of a hairsbreadth [hasa’ara], so that even minor transgressions elicit a severe punishment. Rabbi Neḥunya says: The same idea may be learned from here, in the following verse: “A God dreaded in the great council of the holy ones, and feared by all those that surround Him” (Psalms 89:8), indicating that God is most careful and exacting with those that surround Him, i.e., the righteous.
Numerous commentaries try to explain how Nechunia was so sure that his daughter would be safe, in that the merit of his providing water would protect her, and then subsequently his son dies of thirst, which would seem to be a similar fate. Why did his son not merit the same providential protection?
Ben Yehoyada notes that the narrative describes the cistern as “large“. The significance of that is that, despite it being large, and much less likely for someone to get trapped and stuck in it, nevertheless, initially Nechunia’s daughter was. Nechunia reasoned that if God was meaning to punish him, He would have carried that out through a smaller pit. The fact that it was a large pit, and so unlikely for her to become trapped, coupled with the fact that a larger pit has more merit because it meant that Nechunia went the extra mile in providing even more water for the people, he could not see that God would punish him in that way. It also would lead to disillusionment by others to see somebody who is dedicated to a mitzvah suffer so ironically. Meaning to say, Nechunia understood that perhaps God might judge him more strictly, but via a circumstance where it would lead others to having less faith. This is why, when it came to his son, and the miracle already was demonstrated, as well as the fact that it wasn’t ironically a large pit that could provide much water, whatever judgments that were due against him and his family, were finally executed.
I will add that it is telling that his son also died of a water-related matter, in a sense that he died of thirst. And it is, (pun intended), difficult to swallow that a person who supplied water to other Jews should end up suffering the death of his son from thirst. However, to add to Ben Yehoyada, I would say that there must have been a tikkun and/or spiritual weak spot in his family pertaining to the issue of water. This is why Nechunia was so careful with this mitzvah, because he sensed that there was a need, somehow to counter a curse, or shadow, related to this matter. It helped enough for his daughter, but ultimately not enough for his son.
There is a Jewish mystical idea that a person can sense spiritual lacunae or dangers. For example, Iyov (3:25) speaks of having a premonitory dread. I especially note the commentaries of Malbim and Alshich on that verse, who say that a person might sense a spiritual truth that he cannot grasp with concrete thought, but nonetheless represents important information about his status and vulnerabilities. There is also a Gemara (Megilla 3a) which says that sometimes a person might suddenly feel a fright fall upon him, and though he is not consciously aware of it, his “mazal” sees the danger. (Mazal here seems to mean an angelic manifestation of his consciousness in a higher realm, or a guardian angel, or perhaps that is one in the same.) Similar to this, Baer Heytev (OC 584:3) says in the name of the Arizal, that during the Days of Awe, “If one weeps spontaneously, seemingly from his own accord to an unaccustomed degree, it is a sign that he is being judged at that time in Heaven.” Pele Yoetz (“Tahara”) also discusses this concept in relation to all emotions felt during prayer: “When a person feels a sudden arousal, either out of joy or out of sadness, it is because even though he does not see, his mazal senses what is decreed for him from above, or for his relatives. Likewise, during prayer, sometimes a person is aroused and prays with complete devotion, at times to rejoice and at times to feel sorrow. They reveal to him what is going on in a spiritual realm.”
The lesson in all this is that God’s judgments may be mysterious, and we can never know for sure when we will be granted mercy, salvation or strict retribution, but we should trust our instincts and emotions to inform us of potential dangers and opportunities.
Translations Courtesy of Sefaria, except when, sometimes, I disagree with the translation 
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